·Rethinking China's new energy vehicle policy: Do not hurt love in the name of love

In recent years, China's new energy vehicles have a favorable policy, which has changed the pace and direction of the development of new energy vehicles in China to a certain extent. More and more new energy vehicles have entered the public eye. However, some people have also questioned that the government loves new energy vehicles and gives them many concessions. It has forcibly smashed a hole in the market. This simple and extensive approach is effective in the short term but not sustainable. Indeed, the market has come from consumers' actual demand for products, or because of the temptation of subsidies and licenses. How long is the market's false prosperity under the policy guidance, what kind of variation will occur, and what kind of hidden dangers? Worth thinking. If you love a new energy car, you should let it experience the market and become stronger, instead of infinite shelter to let it grow in the "greenhouse."
The deep love policy has been called “the first year of China's new energy vehicle marketization” in 2014. This year is the year in which China's new energy vehicle policy has been issued the most. The vehicle purchase tax exemption, the new energy reform of the bus, the clear promotion and application of the “road map”, and the implementation of the electricity price policy for the charging and replacing facilities, the government’s support for new energy vehicles is unprecedented. At the beginning of 2015, the policy has shown signs of welcoming dividends, and the preferential treatment for the purchase and use of new energy vehicles is increasing.
In the final analysis, two words can be used to summarize the merits of the policy: subsidies. Under the dual promotion of the national and local subsidy policies, it is hard to push the new energy vehicles to the homes of the people. In fact, starting from the subsidies for new energy vehicles in China in 2009, the entire industry has a very large dependence on policies.
However, what is worrying is that at this stage, new energy vehicles are the starting point of the market. The government's subsidy in various ways is to cultivate the market. It is unsustainable. In the new energy vehicle market, the transcripts that have developed rapidly since last year are The government is paying for new energy vehicles with high costs. This kind of "prosperity" with money has many problems. The independent new energy vehicle enterprises rely too much on the government to present a kind of impetuous phenomenon of "not heavy weight" in research and development products. However, high subsidies will not last forever, and one day they will withdraw from this stage. It is not a long-term solution for independent auto companies to rely on policies to maintain their operations. From the government level, if we continue to use rich subsidies to attract car companies to develop new energy vehicles, they will only lead the car companies to blindly and profitably without seeking sustainable and healthy development.
Emotional irrational guidance policy favors new energy vehicles, but loves lack of rules. Initially, shouting "Curve overtaking" to push hybrid vehicles, and soon proposed that hybrid vehicles are a transitional product concept for the development of pure electric vehicles. Subsequently, in the case that pure electric vehicle technology does not yet have scientific development conditions, the relevant state ministries Start a big package to push the new energy vehicle strategy with pure electric as the core. In the context of the insurmountable obstacles to the commercialization of pure electric vehicles, the hybrid electric vehicle has become the mainstream of global new energy vehicles. The development of the national new energy automobile industry is still developing abnormally: the central and local governments support the pure electric vehicles one-sidedly, and the hybrid vehicles are The marginalization of policies has become a "discarding" of policies. Today, in the reality that the market is more accepting of hybrid vehicles, the policy has begun to loosen the hybrid.
The national policy does not rationally guide the entire industry, which will lead to the impetuous performance of domestic enterprises, blindly spreading the stalls, causing overcapacity and loss of enterprises, making the cornerstone of the entire industry in jeopardy. As Ye Shengji, deputy secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that too many promotion projects have a tendency to deviate from the orbit of new energy development, which will cause major manufacturers to focus on promotion and new energy projects will be launched blindly. Under such circumstances, the concept of new energy vehicles is easily "hot", and enterprises do not have much motivation and energy to deeply cultivate products. Behind the promotion of demonstration areas, it is likely to bring about "hollowing" of the industry.
Local protection is a disease. The support of the Chinese government for new energy vehicles is considered to be large on a global scale. It is true that the promotion of funds and policies by emerging industry governments is very necessary, but large-scale subsidies have also made the development of new energy vehicles widely criticized in recent years: problems such as money-selling and local protection.
Cheng also subsidized and subsidized, saying that “subsidies distort the market” seems to be overstated, but in fact the biggest problem encountered in the promotion of new energy vehicles – local protection issues certainly stems from the subsidy policy. Some cities have set up “local catalogues” to set up barriers for competitive foreign products. In some provinces and cities, new energy vehicles want to enter a certain place to sell, production companies must go to the local investment to set up factories. Similar threshold settings are not uncommon in different places. In reality, the car companies in this city often do not receive subsidies in that city, which brings a lot of inconvenience and confusion to consumers, and also makes the development of new energy vehicles become "local characteristics." Once suffering from local protection, it is difficult to heal and will intensify.
The licensing incentives are limited. Currently, the new energy vehicle market is far from mature. “Only about 50% of sales come from private consumption.” Ye Shengji bluntly said that even private users are mostly not attracted by the product itself to choose new energy vehicles. “The sales of new energy vehicles in cities with limited purchase policies may be better, and consumers in non-restricted cities are less likely to buy.”
Automobile purchase restrictions have gradually become a "killer" for the development of new energy vehicles. At present, seven cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have joined the “restricted purchase army”. Almost all car-restricted cities have a big lock on the fuel car buckles at the same time, and they have left a broad road to the purchase of new energy vehicles: a large number of brands to shake, free license plates to take directly, properly subsidized to put your pocket. So every time a city announces a car purchase, there will be a voice coming along - "The opportunity for new energy vehicles is coming."
Is the picture so beautiful? In fact, consumers who wave their banknotes to buy a car don't necessarily appreciate it. In Beijing's 2014 annual passenger car lottery, 2.27 million applicants competed for 130,000 fuel car license plates, which is evident in the tragic situation. And the new energy car here? After one year, 20,000 indicators were more than enough, and the proportion of abandoned purchases reached 68%.
It is not in line with market rules to entice consumers to buy new energy vehicles by license. Under the market economy, the purchase behavior is to meet their own needs. In the current situation that new energy vehicle products and the use environment are still immature, it is necessary for most consumers who are waiting to buy the first car to stay for future generations. A touch of green" noble sentiment to go shopping for new energy vehicles is really difficult for the quality of the people. There are, but only a few, people who can’t shake the numbers and buy new energy vehicles to meet the eager travel requirements. New energy vehicles should go farther by relying on product strength, rather than relying on the abnormal nourishment of policies.
The policy of leveraging the policy to respect market policy is not too small, but the status quo of the development of new energy vehicles in China is not satisfactory. “There must be problems in this area that need to be reconsidered.” Xu Changming, director of the Information Resource Department of the National Information Center, said, “Our policy is more about how to promote industrial development. Considering the willingness of consumers is relatively small, which may lead to policy direction and consumer demand. Mismatch."
Chen Qingtai, former dean of the School of Public Administration of Tsinghua University and deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, pointed out: "Now the low-speed electric vehicles in the second- and third-tier cities and urban-rural junctions in China have quietly risen. Therefore, under the current circumstances, the conventional path led by the government is Under the premise of the Lord, the path of market-oriented low-speed electric vehicles should also be promoted, so that it is possible to embark on a development path that is in line with national conditions and achieve the goal of developing electric vehicles in China."
The policy of loving and not being a good one may be a "special effect drug", which will play a strong role in promoting the development of new energy vehicles in the short term. Once the policy is unreasonably formulated, it will greatly disrupt the market and hinder the healthy development of the industry. . In any case, the sequelae of over-reliance on policies cannot be ignored.
Experts pointed out that China has the advantageous environment for developing new energy vehicles, but at the policy level, there are still many links worth reflecting. The new energy vehicle market relies too much on policies, from enterprise product research and development, to infrastructure construction, to product market application, and all aspects are inseparable from policy support. In the long run, on the one hand, it will inhibit the vitality of industrial development; on the other hand, there may be a risk that the pure electric vehicle market will not be able to expand when the policy disappears.
Even if the policy favors a lot of consumers, it may be just a mirror, or even a counterattack. New energy vehicles are difficult to break through in a short period of time. The performance of products is not mature enough, the price is high, and the charging infrastructure is imperfect. The more consumers, the more hidden dangers may be. Once the users are in use, they have accumulated a lot of inconveniences. The bad reputation, the distrust of new energy vehicles will flood the whole society, and once the trust collapses, the consequences will be disastrous. Perhaps down-to-earth and gradual development is the way for new energy vehicles to go, rather than blindly counting on policy asylum, and not hurting love in the name of love.

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