Industry turmoil 2017 new energy vehicle market can achieve the expected goals?

  As is known to all, in 2016, the new energy automobile industry has experienced ups and downs, and the results of the investigation of fraudulent incidents have led to frequent market turmoil. At the same time, the subsidy policy has been vacillating and it is difficult to land, and the “Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles” has been released. As well as the issuance of newly-built new energy vehicle production enterprise licenses and the acceleration of cross-border vehicle construction by Internet companies, the entire new energy automobile industry is filled with an atmosphere of mixed narrative and turbulent conflicts. If the end of this year is approaching, will the new energy vehicle market achieve its expected goals, and how will it break?

Adhere to the development of new energy “three-oriented” for pure electric drive routes

At present, China's new energy automobile industry is in a period of development transition, and the development of domestic automobile power electrification has gone through many twists and turns, and is gradually entering a good situation. The "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap" released not long ago has re-integrated hybrid vehicles into one of the key directions for future industrial development, and once again caused a discussion about the "powered drive" as the core technology route. --- More directly, that is, the hybrid technology represented by Toyota, which has obvious cost advantages and maturity, is suitable for the promotion of new energy vehicles in China.

"If China takes the Toyota model, I think there is no way out because we are not an order of magnitude." For this question, Professor Ouyang Minggao of the Department of Automotive Engineering at Tsinghua University made a speech at the forum and made it clear that China’s new energy vehicles should stick to pure The development route of electric drive. In his view, China's model is the first to make pure electric vehicles . The battery industry has achieved the world's largest through the expansion of pure electric scale. "Now we have achieved the world's largest battery industry, I don't say the strongest, in the top three. On this basis, plug-in hybrid power is used as a platform for pure electric power. The promotion of hybrid power, which is represented by Toyota, is the opposite path. The advantage is that “the state subsidies can be used to gradually enhance competitiveness during this period. Utilize the advantages of the battery to significantly reduce costs and improve life."

For the "Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles", Ouyang Minggao also gave its own interpretation, arguing that the core of new energy vehicles is "three-way": power electricization, lightweight body, and intelligent vehicle. And this "three-oriented" has to be integrated with three other technology trends separately - power electricization, integration of energy, low carbonization, lightweight construction, ecological integration, vehicle integration, intelligent transportation, network integration, to achieve power depth Technical upgrading of electrification, lightweight chassis and intelligent network integration of vehicles.

"At present, it is said to be electrified and intelligent, but the lightweight body is also the same major technological change as the two. It is connected with the manufacturing ecology, that is, all the contents of Industry 4.0 are related to the weight reduction of the body." The automation and vehicle intelligence are now paying a lot of attention, and Ouyang Minggao particularly emphasized that the lightweight body has not received corresponding attention. For the trend of lightweight body, Ouyang Minggao pointed out that this technological innovation is not only a change in the body material, but the chassis structure and manufacturing process will be subverted. At the same time, the concept of personalized body customization and artificial intelligence manufacturing has gradually emerged, which makes the development of body lightweight technology closely integrated with the entire ecology of automobile manufacturing. Taking the lightweight and carbon fiber BMW i3 as an example, he pointed out that “the traditional load-bearing body has no chassis. Now the chassis appears, the body is re-made, not necessarily the load-bearing body. The materials and production processes of the body are all changed. All the processes of the depot will undergo revolutionary changes in the next two or three decades."

For the intelligence of the car, Ouyang Ming said highly, the self-driving car and the car network are the technical directions of two dimensions, but the two should be combined and developed. In his view, the biggest goal of the Internet of Vehicles is to achieve active safety. It is expected to achieve conditional automatic driving by 2020 and a high degree of automatic driving in 2025.

The three major effects are significant

When the development route is first, industrial policy will inevitably follow. Nowadays, China's new energy industry related policies have been turbulent, whether it is in the field of vehicles, batteries, or charging piles. In view of the current development of the new energy automobile industry, Li Qingwen, vice president of China Europe Economic and Technical Cooperation Association and president of the independent automobile industry branch, said: "At present, the new energy automobile industry still needs strong policies, correct, effective and truly capable. Policy-solving, systemic and predictable policies. If you leave these policies at this stage, the previous efforts will probably be abandoned halfway, or you may lose the good situation."

In Li Qingwen's view, the technology of new energy vehicles is productivity, and industrial policy is the supporting condition. "With the support conditions needed for productivity, we can turn productivity into a realistic production capacity and become a competition for China's new energy automobile industry. force". Regarding the current negative comments on the current new energy vehicle industry policies in the industry and the industry, Li Qingwen believes that the criticism and questioning are biased, because the industrial policies that can be seen now have at least three achievements.

First, the new energy industry policy makes China's electric vehicles and new energy vehicles have the same sales position as the traditional cars in the world. This objective reality is not certain. "In any case, you can’t say a word or A simple negation negates the struggle and efforts of the whole industry." Li Qingwen pointed out that the historical reasons for the low starting point of the automobile industry, coupled with the accumulation of technology and product accumulation, will take time. The new energy automobile industry cannot become the strongest in the world from the very beginning, and the first big and the strong is the realistic development path.

Second, the new energy industry policy has prompted China to have a number of new and energetic new energy vehicles and electric vehicles. They have grown to have a place in the global market for more than a decade. For example, under the premise that the market decides the allocation of resources and through self-innovation to today's BYD, BYD cannot be a strategic position in the world auto industry, especially the new energy auto industry, without the market environment for the development of China's electric vehicles. And important enterprises; if there is no development of China's electric vehicle industry, it is impossible to produce Chinese battery companies that can compete with world-class battery companies in the battery field represented by the Mingde era.

Third, the new energy industry policy has made China a resource for new energy vehicles and electric vehicles around the world. A variety of new energy vehicle industry resources around the world began to gather in China. Whether in Europe or North America, the technology, talents, and capital surrounding the electric vehicle new energy vehicles flowed to China, and the ripple effect on resource agglomeration has already occurred. Li Qingwen bluntly stated that many developed automobile companies, including the German Volkswagen, are undergoing a fierce strategic transformation. One of their characteristics is to increase the layout in China. "At present, I see the resources of the world's automobile industry and the various elements flowing to China. The speed is accelerating."

Lack of systematic industrial development requires forward-looking planning

"Today we have such a foundation. We should be gratified that this round of world industrial revolution China has not fallen behind. We have a lot of investment in technology, a lot of accumulation, and a lot of achievements and output. We cannot deny China's engineering and technical personnel, scientific and technological personnel, in accordance with the national industrial policy, the national strategy to guide these efforts and these achievements." But while affirming the importance and necessity of the new energy industry policy, Li Qingwen also pointed out that In the past, the relationship between the guiding and operational aspects of industrial policy was not well sorted out, and the systemicity of policies was flawed.

He believes that the guiding front of the industry is doing very well, but the industrial policy has too many random, temporary and fragmented phenomena at the operational level, and many non-industrial demand factors have caused strong interference, such as central policies and localities. Dislocation of policy. The subsidy policy is a typical example. The central government's subsidy policy is very clear, but when the local government issues the corresponding rules, there is no planning and no timetable, which leads to the enterprise's entanglement and helplessness.

This view was endorsed by Yan Hao, CEO of Shenzhen Tengshi New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd., a representative of the new energy vehicle industry. This year, the new energy vehicle market was affected by the “scamping case”, and the industrial development changed from the initial “blowout” to “stable”. With the announcement of the fraudulent results, the state also indicated that it will re-plan the market, the most important of which It is the adjustment of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. Yan Yan said that the new energy vehicle policy has not yet landed, and the development of the corporate brand market has been blocked. “The product sales are not good, is it the product itself or the brand, or is there a problem with marketing?” She said frankly at the same time, she said that the “sterilization” time was too long, and it also had a certain impact on the new car plan.

"Industrial policies must be predictive, systematic, and continuous. Some policies should not be introduced when they are introduced. When they are introduced, they are particularly impatient, causing the industry chain of the entire industry to be disordered. In the process of disorder, major mistakes are inevitable. In the event of major mistakes, individual companies will make mistakes.” Li Qingwen stressed that although the mistakes are manifested in enterprises, the policy makers should reflect on them. “The production and sales of new energy vehicles have come up quickly since 2015. At this time, people have appeared. The major mistake of rickets is precisely that we have grown up very quickly at this time. This is a contradiction."

In this regard, he suggested that the first industrial policy should increase systemicity, and the second is to make policy expectations. For example, the recent technology roadmap has achieved guiding, leading, forward-looking planning and information guidance, "and new energy vehicles. The industry is the first for private enterprises and emerging enterprises to enter, rather than large state-owned enterprises. Now they are in front of these enterprises, whether it is battery or electric motor, electronic control, charging piles are the same, so from this perspective, industrial policy is also very important".

Charging pile dispersion layout risks and opportunities coexist

For the upstream enterprises of the new energy automobile industry chain, 2016 is undoubtedly also a turbulent year. Whether it is the swing of subsidy policy, the adjustment of the battery and the vehicle access threshold, it directly affects the strategic layout of the enterprise.

In the field of charging, which has an important position in the whole industry chain of new energy vehicles, there are now hundreds of charging facilities companies competing in the market. For the development trend of charging piles in the future, can large-scale establishment of charging piles effectively alleviate the charging problem? In this regard, Li Lili, deputy director of the State Grid Research Institute and the Institute of Power Grid Development, clearly stated: “The charging facilities cannot be developed in the same way as gas stations.” He believes that the timely service capacity of gas stations is not available in charging facilities, and vice versa. The power safety and flexible features also enable the charging piles to be distributed in various parking lots.

In view of the current turmoil and risks faced by new energy vehicles, Hu Wei, vice president and senior analyst of the new energy industry of CITIC Securities Research Department, said that in the new energy auto industry, the best thing to fly is that the threshold is relatively low. The battery industry, "According to statistics, this year's investment in the power battery industry has exceeded 100 billion yuan, but with the policy swinging, the risk becomes very large in this case."

Xiao Chengwei, deputy director of the 18th Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, believes that the country has repeatedly revised the battery industry specifications and battery catalogs, and the ultimate goal is to promote the sound development of the battery industry. At present, all relevant policies in the battery industry are frequent, and whether the battery catalogue and subsidies are linked depends on the development trend of the entire industry.

As a representative of the first-line vehicle manufacturers, Dong Changzheng, executive deputy general manager of Toyota Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd. said that for new energy vehicles, Toyota has always insisted that hybrid power is the core common technology, on the basis of which PHEV, EV and FCV are developed. Products, and committed to the popularization of energy-saving technologies.

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