The auto market dropped to a low level in the second quarter, and the purchase restriction stopped growth by 4.5%.

Recently, Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Department of the National Information Center, appealed to the media on different occasions and hoped that the relevant government departments would not introduce any policies that are not conducive to the development of the automobile market.

"If you follow the current growth rate, the second quarter may be the lowest level of the auto market this year." In Xu Changming's view, the average growth rate of the domestic auto market in the first five months has been significantly lower than the current level of potential growth in the auto market.

According to the data provided by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to May this year, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 7,777,700 and 7,791,200, an increase of 3.19% and 4.06% respectively.

“Since 2009, China’s automobile development has entered a second period of rapid growth. Due to the large domestic income gap, the growth rate is relatively low. The normal average annual growth rate is about 13%-15%, but this year The growth rate of the auto market in May has been less than 10%, said Xu Changming.

Restricted purchase policy affects auto market growth by 4.5%

Xu Changming believes that from the monthly distribution, the trend of domestic auto sales is becoming increasingly severe. From January to March this year, the year-on-year growth rate of the domestic passenger car market was 22.4%, 7.9%, and 11.3% respectively; after April, the figure dropped sharply, which was 3.4% and 2.6%, respectively, which was less than the growth rate of the same period of last year. one tenth. "If you develop at this rate, the second quarter is likely to be the lowest valley of the auto market this year."

Industry insiders almost agreed that policy factors are the main reason leading to the decline of the auto market in China. "If the rate of growth from 37.4% in May last year to the current level of potential growth rate of 15%, this nearly 20 percentage point decline is related to the incentive policy out of the auto market. And Beijing implemented a vehicle purchase restriction policy for this year. The impact of the growth rate of the auto market is about 4.5 percentage points, said Xu Changming.

According to statistics from the Beijing Asian Games Village Auto Market (hereinafter referred to as Yashi), the cumulative number of new cars in Beijing in the first five months of this year totaled 122,800, which was a decrease of nearly 200,000 new cars from the same period of last year, a year-on-year decline of 61%. “In the event that the favorable factors of the recorded car policy gradually fade out of the market, the sales of the Beijing auto market in June may be even with that in May,” said Yan Jinghui, deputy general manager of the Asian city, to the reporter.

However, the policy factors that are not conducive to the development of the automobile market have not ended. At present, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and other departments are studying the adjustment of the “energy-saving vehicle subsidy policy”. Now, the most probable solution is that the energy-saving vehicle standards will increase by 10%-15%.

According to the "Implementation Rules for Implementing Energy-Saving Products Benefiting the People" Project for Energy-Saving Products (1.6L and Below Passenger Cars), which was launched on June 1, last year, a one-time subsidy of 3,000 yuan will be given to energy-saving vehicles entering the Huimin Project, and 4 million vehicles will be subsidized. Vehicles, capital of 12 billion yuan. At present, the policy fund has been used to half, and 2.09 million vehicles have been subsidized, which means that all subsidy funds will be used up by July of this year.

"If the policy is cancelled, it will undoubtedly have a greater negative impact on the auto market once again; if the standards for energy-saving cars are raised, the negative impact on the auto market will be much smaller," said Xu Changming.

In addition, the state’s policy of tightening the macroeconomic environment will also have an adverse impact on the auto market. Xu Changming believes that the continuous increase in the deposit reserve ratio will make it more difficult for the market to raise the cost of capital, and the difficulty in obtaining the funds will increase. The SMEs will experience tight cash flow and rising financing costs. To ensure the company's operating funds, some companies will suspend car purchases. SME owners account for more than 50% of private car buyers.

Passenger car growth is expected to rebound to 10% in the second half

Although policy-related unfavorable factors still exist, experts in the industry believe that with the gradual elimination of Japan’s earthquake factors and the declining influence of Beijing’s restriction on purchase policies, the growth rate of the passenger vehicle market in the second half of the year is expected to rebound to 10%.

Since late May, Japanese car manufacturers have announced that they will resume production in China. The automotive terminal market has responded rapidly. Toyota, Honda and other brands have narrowed their gaps in supply of cars and increased price concessions, making up for the strong marketing actions that have taken the market down.

“At present, Japan’s domestic vehicle manufacturers and parts manufacturers have basically clarified the timetable for resumption of normal supply and increased supply to China. To increase supply, Japanese joint venture manufacturers have even reduced parts inventory, increased production recovery rates, and released pre-hoarding. The entire vehicle inventory, returning funds to reduce operating losses.” Xu Changming told reporters that the Japanese earthquake factors, can make monthly passenger car sales increase by 3 to 4 percentage points.

In addition, the purchase restriction policy implemented by Beijing is expected to gradually return to normal levels from July. According to data provided by the Asian city, as of June 8th, a total of 590,000 people applied for a shake in Beijing, an increase of 45,000 people from the previous month, and the smallest increase since the start of the shake number policy. The minimum personal odds ratio was approximately 33:1.

The proportion of personal car purchases in new car transactions in Beijing rose from 67% in March to 77% in May, an increase of 10%. The newly added card rate has also increased from 13% in February to 46% in May. It is expected that the city's successful rate of release will reach 40% in June.

“As the first batch of successful applicants will expire at the end of June, and the record car is also nearing the end, it is believed that there will be a wave of sales climax in the Beijing auto market in June.” Xu Changming believes that the gradual dilution of the impact of Beijing’s restriction on purchase policies will lead to monthly sales. The sales volume of vehicles recovered by 3 percentage points. This coupled with the resolution of Japan's earthquake factors, the increase in the passenger car market in the second half of the year is expected to rebound to 10%.

However, due to the slowdown in the macro economy, the outlook for the commercial vehicle market in the second half of the year is still not optimistic. From January to May this year, the production and sales of commercial vehicles fell 3.67% and 2.05% year-on-year; in particular, the sales of semi-trailer tractors in May decreased by 51.91% and 38.57% year-on-year.

“As the decline in commercial vehicles is large, it is expected that the overall growth rate of the auto market will be around 6% this year, and the premise is that there is no policy that is not conducive to the development of the automotive market.” Xu Changming said.