Safe Housing Construction Speed ​​Construction Machinery Turning Machine

Since the second half of April, sales of construction machinery have declined rapidly. In May, they continued to shrink on the basis of April, and many important models have fallen by more than 20% year-on-year. It was also learned that since April, the purchases of parts and components of the entire machine manufacturer have fallen sharply and there have been obvious signs of active production cuts. The monthly output of excavator companies represented by Komatsu is controlled below 1,000 units. The hot excavator crawlers in the peak season also followed cooling. Most crawler suppliers’ inventory increased rapidly and the turnover rate slowed down significantly. Combined with the sales data and downstream demand in May, the short-term turning point of construction machinery has been confirmed, and the industry has entered the adjustment period from the high growth at the beginning of the year.

According to the analysis, an important reason for confirming the inflection point is the deceleration of investment in downstream industries. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total planned investment for new projects started from January to May 2011 was 7.9005 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly lower than the same period of 2010. In particular, investment in railways and highways has fully slowed down. Almost no large projects were launched. It can be said that the construction of affordable housing supported by policies has become a decisive factor in the market performance of construction machinery in the second half of the year.

The executive meeting of the State Council held on July 12 proposed improving relevant policies and measures, increasing government input and loan support, and ensuring that 10 million sets of affordable housing this year will start construction before the end of November. In this regard, industry experts pointed out that at the beginning of this year, military orders have been established in various places, but the actual conditions of construction have been uneven. In response to this situation, the State Council has made clear requirements and it is expected that with the support of relevant policies, the funding bottleneck for the construction of affordable housing will hopefully be cracked, and the task of ensuring the construction of the housing will also be completed on time. The Central Government issued such specific time and quantity directive indicators as the national affordable housing construction, and adopted a strict administrative means of “accountability”. This fully demonstrated the Chinese government’s determination and confidence in improving people’s livelihood and regulating house prices. This also means that in the coming months, the nation’s affordable housing construction is expected to usher in the peak period.

Judging from plans to build 10 million sets of affordable housing this year, the country should have about 7 million sets of affordable housing starting in the second half of the year. Experts believe that the 4 trillion yuan investment to promote the blowout development of the construction machinery industry has played a significant role in promoting the real estate, infrastructure investment and construction machinery industry, the positive correlation between the development of the more obvious. Under the accountability system, local governments may usher in an upsurge in the large-scale centralized construction of affordable housing, which will directly stimulate higher sales of construction machinery.

Relevant data show that about 30% of Sany Heavy Industry's revenue comes from the concrete machinery business. It is estimated that even if commercial housing and other residential and non-residential markets do not grow, only the construction of affordable housing will boost the growth of concrete demand by at least 12.6%. Shanhe Intelligence has also extended its keen market tentacles to affordable housing, and its independent innovation R&D and production of static pile drivers have achieved great results in construction at home and abroad. In addition, SWE series multi-functional hydraulic excavators, which are the successful models of Sunward continuous innovation, have shown absolute advantages in the construction of various types of infrastructure projects in cities. 10 million sets of affordable housing will be started before the end of the year. The demand for hoisting machinery, road machinery and concrete machinery will drive the sales growth of construction machinery in the second half of the year. In addition, the traditional sales season of construction machinery will come in September and October. It is expected that the project will be completed in 2011. The sales revenue of machinery industry will achieve about 17% growth, and the growth rate of exports will reach about 25%, and demand will continue to maintain a sustained growth trend.

It is reported that on June 20, the "Circular on the Use of Bond Financing to Support the Construction of Guaranteed Housing" formulated by the Development and Reform Commission explicitly proposed that investment and financing platform companies should apply for the issuance of corporate bonds to raise funds. This means that the financing of the construction of affordable housing is expected to achieve a breakthrough, combined with the previous requirements of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development - before the end of November, the construction of affordable housing must be fully started. Therefore, it is expected that from the beginning of the third quarter, the construction of affordable housing will be accelerated significantly, and the construction machinery, especially earth-moving machinery and concrete machinery will form a concentrated pull.

The impact of social housing construction on construction machinery will not only stop in the second half of 2011. As an important part of the “12th Five-Year Plan”, the construction of affordable housing will continue throughout the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, with a total investment of more than 4.5 trillion yuan. In 2011, the highest amount of capital investment in five years, the investment amount will reach 1.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 29% of the entire investment plan; the proportion of investment in 2012 will drop to 22%, and the proportion of investment in 2013-2015 will be 17% respectively. , 16% and 16%. It can be seen that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the construction of affordable housing has always had a major impact on the construction machinery industry.

Experts believe that the country’s policy tilt on affordable housing will largely mitigate the impact on the construction machinery industry caused by restrictions on commercial real estate. The most obvious effect of this policy is to accelerate the recovery of China's concrete machinery industry. At the same time, it will also bring about the recovery of the related earth-moving machinery and other product markets. On the other hand, in the peak demand season of construction machinery, due to the dual impact of the start of other fixed asset investment projects and the construction of affordable housing, the demand for construction machinery may increase. It is expected that the demand for three types of construction machinery will be directly driven: concrete machinery, large excavators and The loader (indirect pull for other models) has the following advantages: concrete machinery, large excavators, and loaders.