2010 nitrogen fertilizer industry changes in pain
Deep Paddy Field Tire,Rice Paddy Field Tyre,Irrigation Tires,Tractor Tires Car Lift,Field Tire Co., Ltd. , http://www.nbbustire.com
The nitrogenous fertilizer industry and the nitrogen fertilizer industry are people who dance and perform. The short-lived joy can not conceal the fear and cramps of the bottom of the heart. Whether it is the fat market decline or the soaring price of fertilizer, the gloomy tone is the keynote of the year.
Spring Expression: Confused
“Fei City has been locked in fog for a long time, and when is 800 million busy with spring plowing?†This is a small poem unintentionally read by the reporter at the nitrogen fertilizer industry consultation meeting. It truly stated that during this season, it was hit by rare natural disasters. The fertilizer market brought confusion and confusion to the nitrogen fertilizer industry.
In January and February, although the nitrogen fertilizer market was in the traditional off-season, the mainstream ex-factory price of urea was still above 1,800 yuan (t price, same below), and the nitrogen fertilizer market was waiting for the arrival of bright spring. The report of a stock professional analysis agency predicted at the beginning of the year with unyielding excitement: “At the end of 2009, prices of agricultural products driven by economic recovery rose, oil and natural gas prices rose, and the government implemented a series of encouraging policies, and urea prices rose. The demand has increased rapidly, and the nitrogen fertilizer industry is in a recovery phase. We expect that the demand for nitrogen fertilizer will start to show a recovery growth in 2010, with a growth rate of between 3% and 4%.â€
The situation is stronger than people. Entering the usual spring plowing season in March, the trend of the market has changed drastically, and the price of nitrogen fertilizer represented by urea has turned sharply downward. Some articles expressed the market's "disaster": From the beginning of March to the end of March, the price of urea in Shandong dropped by RMB 200/ton, even the originally ridiculous 1480 yuan transaction price became impossible to reach by the end of the month. Resist facts. Before and after March, the five provinces in the southwest suffered extreme drought, and the demand for fertilizers decreased substantially. In Yunnan alone, in 2010, 31.48 million mu of affected area was planted in Xiaochun, which accounted for 85% of the sown area and the harvest exceeded 10 million mu. Before and after this, Northeast China, North China, and Central China suffered large-scale low-temperature freezing weather. Freezing damage has delayed spring cultivation in these areas, and the planting structure has changed. The Nitrogen Fertilizer Association once said that delaying the spring plowing has reduced the area planted to the northeastern corn, changed soybeans and other crops, and reduced the demand for nitrogen fertilizers.
Throughout the spring market, the nitrogen fertilizer associations concluded that the contradiction between the supply and demand of nitrogen fertilizers has suddenly increased due to the late season, and the market price has fallen. This has severely undermined market confidence and created a vicious cycle. Prices have quickly fallen below the cost line.
Summer Expression: Anxious
The aftermath of the natural disaster sneak attack on the nitrogen fertilizer market is still delayed. Throughout April and May, urea prices have been low consolidation. In addition to warming prices in the southern market, urea prices in most parts of the country have stagnated at a low of 1,550 yuan.
Negative news came again. The results of the Nitrogen Fertilizer Association's production statistics in May conveyed signals that the industry has fallen into the ice valley in recent years. According to statistics, in May, China’s urea production was 2.4032 million tons (recovered), which was a decrease of 10.5% year-on-year and a decrease of 1.8% compared with April. "This is the rare case of a year-on-year drop in both the year-on-year and the quarter-on-one ratios in recent years." The report's statement makes everyone worry.
The weather is getting hotter, and the peak of fertilizer use in summer is slowly coming. The deserted market makes the expectations of the nitrogen fertilizer industry more urgent. If the demand for nitrogen fertilizer can no longer be raised, the loss of the entire industry will not be restored. "Low tide" and "small year" seem to have made judgments for the nitrogen fertilizer industry in the middle of the year.
The downstream market has not yet changed, and the raw material market in the upstream has been turbulent. In May, the state raised the natural gas pipeline transmission fee by 8 cents per cubic meter. From June 1 onwards, natural gas for industrial use rose by an average of 0.23 yuan/cubic meter (plus factors such as the rise in pipeline transportation fees and a 10% rise, and the actual increase of some enterprises will be around 0.4 yuan/cubic meter). The cost of tons of urea rose 240-280 yuan.
At the same time, anthracite prices have also continued to strengthen. Abnormal coal prices caused the attention of the ministries. In mid-June of this year, the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission even issued special documents, requesting state-owned coal enterprises not to take the lead in raising prices, and state-owned coal companies must maintain coal prices stable. This is the first time in recent years that China has used administrative measures to control coal prices. The Nitrogen Fertilizer Association predicts that due to the adjustment of natural gas prices and the suspension of production of coal mines in Shanxi Province in the second half of the year, there is still a large room for coal to rise. Future facts prove that the forecast is accurate.
The downturn in the market, sluggish demand, and difficult prices make nitrogen fertilizer companies struggle near the cost line. Liu Shulan, vice chairman of the China Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry Association, said: “A lot of people say that urea has excess capacity, and it doesn’t matter if some companies are dead. We also admit that there is a slight surplus in production capacity, but this industry chain is very fragile and can’t afford to toss.â€
Autumn expression: happy
The July fire seems to indicate that the annual inflection point for the nitrogen fertilizer industry is coming. In this season, the nitrogen fertilizer company is: Painful and happy!
Some analysts said that in July, the demand for top-dressing corn increased in East China, North China, and Central China, and the domestic urea market price showed a rising trend. The high-end price rose by nearly 100 yuan, forming the first small season since spring, which greatly eased the inventory of early-stage enterprises. pressure. Of course, entering the low-tariff period, the pull of exports has gradually emerged from this time on. In August, urea exports advanced significantly. In September, the prices of urea and ammonium bicarbonate entered the general increase channel, and the high-end market continued to climb. The low-end market followed up aggressively, and the urea price hit the “Chapter 9†mark.
Compared with the booming nitrogen fertilizer market, the operating rate of enterprises has approached historical lows. The Nitrogen Fertilizer Association released statistics for September that the total urea production from January to September was 446.564 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.43%.
In the autumn urea market, it is not only the recovery of prosperity, but also an energy-saving mania that has swept the industry. As early as May 4 of the first half of the year, the State Council issued the “Notice of Further Enlarging Work to Ensure the Implementation of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†for Energy-Saving and Emission Reduction Targets†to ensure that the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†realizes the energy consumption per unit of GDP. Reduce the target by about 20%. In September, power-constrained parking was widely spread, and the limelight in October was even stronger. Energy conservation and emission reduction has led to a sharp drop in urea production in Anhui, Hebei, and Henan, where urea prices have successfully crossed the 1900 yuan limit, and individual regions have reached 2,000 yuan.
High-priced nitrogen fertilizer is just a pleasant illusion. The output fell sharply, and affected by the high fertilizer prices, the downstream demand was sluggish, the start-up of fertilizers in the off-season slowed down, and the market was under the vanity of high fertilizer prices, secretly concealing huge hidden troubles.
Winter Expressions: Sighs
Energy conservation and emission reduction continued, but gradually weakened, and the rising tide of raw materials was still in its wake. Another doubtful group was filled in the industry.
Due to the unexpectedly significant rebound in the international market, the export of nitrogen fertilizers has been extremely fascinating. According to statistics from the Nitrogen Fertilizer Association, as of September, domestic urea exports were close to 3.7 million tons, which exceeded the total urea exports in 2009.
Since the beginning of October, rumors of customs changes have begun to spread wildly in the industry and many versions have been performed. However, everyone's expectations are surprisingly consistent: the export gates will be closed at any time. Over the years, the game between management and industry has formed a strange tacit understanding between the two parties.
The nitrogen fertilizer market increasingly has the property of the stock market, and the psychological expectation of tariff change has begun to exert its enormous influence. The urea company staged a sneaky price cut. From 2000 yuan to 1980 yuan, to 1950 yuan, even so, the downstream pick-up is still hesitant and wait-and-see. In the slow down of prices and constant trials, everyone is quietly waiting and listening to the voice of boots falling from the customs.
The coming came finally, and it was so caught off guard. On November 30, the Ministry of Finance announced the New Deal for Chemical Fertilizers. From December 1, 2010 to December 31, it imposed an export tariff on urea at a provisional rate of 35% and imposed a special export tariff of 75%. 110%. The door to the exit suddenly closed. On December 15th, the "2011 Tariff Implementation Plan" was reviewed and passed on January 1, 2011. The urea export period was shortened by six months, and the benchmark price was lowered to 2,100 yuan.
The New Deal's Shenwei began to appear. In just 3 weeks, the price of urea fell by nearly 150 yuan. The price of domestic small granule urea was at a low of 1,850 yuan, which was close to the manufacturer's production cost line. At the same time, as of November, urea production decreased by 3.59 million tons year-on-year. Tariffs, energy-saving emission reductions, and raw material prices, the industry sighed under pressure.
At the end of the year, the top five nitrogen fertilizer companies got together in a heavy atmosphere. The anxiety was filled with air. After the country raised its export tariffs on chemical fertilizers, it also objectively hit market confidence. The loss of urea production companies has increased, causing many companies to fail to resume production, leading to serious reductions in urea production this year. Failure to adopt effective measures will definitely lead to a significant reduction in urea supply.
The book reads: "The poor will change, change will pass, and will be long." At the bottom of the cold flow of the nitrogen fertilizer industry, the voices of innovation, change, and strength are getting louder and brighter, and the action is proceeding in silence. Structural adjustment and industrial integration continue to advance in depth, technological transformation and consumption reduction are carried out quietly, and differentiated product development and innovation are in the ascendant....
In the face of severe reality, in the face of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the nitrogen fertilizer industry is striving to seek a turn in stealth.
Keywords: Adjustment
Overcapacity is a topic that nitrogen fertilizer companies cannot bypass in recent years. According to statistics, China's urea production capacity alone exceeds 10 million tons. At the same time, the pattern of industry concentration is not high and the patterns of good and bad are relatively serious. According to the statistics, the ammonia plant below 80,000 tons/year accounts for about 40% of the total and about 16% of the total capacity.
In 2010, under the harsh market forces, the improvement of the nitrogen fertilizer industry has never stopped.
The investment in nitrogen fertilizer industry declined for the first time. Data show that from January to November this year, nitrogen fertilizer investment completed 29.34 billion yuan, down 19.7% year-on-year. In addition, the pace of eliminating backwardness is quietly keeping up. According to incomplete statistics, it is expected that the elimination of backward production capacity in nitrogen fertilizer industry will reach 4 million tons in 2010.
The idea of ​​industrial layout that moves closer to resource and grain production areas is being implemented step by step. For example, the Hubei Yihua Group Xinjiang Yihua Low Carbon Recycling Economy Industrial Park project started on June 8, 2010, plans to invest more than 30 billion yuan, in the five years to build an annual output of 1.2 million tons of synthetic ammonia, 2 million tons of urea and other projects. For example, the “3052†fertilizer project of Huahe Coal Chemical Co., Ltd. was laid on the foundation of Hegang City, Heilongjiang, on October 12, 2010. It includes 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 520,000 tons of urea. It is planned to be completed and put into operation in 2013. .
In the face of fierce homogenous competition, more knowledgeable companies began to plan for a greater transformation or even withdraw. The selection of Sinopec is most attractive. At the end of the year, the Jiujiang Petrochemical urea plant in Jiangxi announced the suspension of production. According to media comment, this has become the third enterprise of Sinopec after Jinling Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining and Chemical withdraw from the fertilizer industry. Sinopec's other urea plants will also be permanently withdrawn from the urea market, and Sinopec's goal is to completely withdraw from 2015.
The pace of adjustment is accelerating. In order to cope with the disorderly expansion of production capacity, the industry is looking forward to the introduction of conditions for the entry of synthetic ammonia for a long time. At the end of the year, the news came from the beginning of the year: The Raw Materials Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a seminar in Henan to discuss the “Ammonia Industry Access Requirements†(Draft for Comment).
Keywords: Innovation
Product homogeneity is one of the root causes of fluctuating urea prices and continuous dilution of profit margins. Nitrogen fertilizers, represented by urea, are now in the eyes of dealers and become a tasteless pity for tasteless food.
A well-informed commentary in 2010 pointed out that the later focus of urea enterprises will shift to low energy consumption, high quality, safety, environmental protection, and low cost, in particular, increase nitrogen use efficiency, slow release and release technology, and simplification of new urea products. Refined urea products will become the top priority for corporate R&D. The intensification of market competition has enabled some urea companies to extend downstream processing, increase variety, achieve vertical integration benefits, and enhance their ability to withstand market risks. The development of new varieties of nitrogen fertilizers has become an upsurge, and this list is constantly growing.
On November 6, 2010, the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Rising Group Co., Ltd. signed a contract to jointly develop new products for synergistic urea; the leading fertilizer company for nitrogen fertilizer, Rouxi Chemical Co., Ltd., adhered to normal and scientific research and developed cooperatively to produce urea-formaldehyde and slow-release fertilizer. And other new varieties of fertilizers; domestic Shandong Lucheng Zhongnong Runtian Chemical Co., Ltd. and Beijing Zhongnong Ruiliyuan Hi-tech Development Co., Ltd., and the Texas Chinese Experimental Station of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences adopted a low-carbon technology to upgrade the polypeptide urea products and successfully developed Introduced dual enzyme urea...
Keywords: technical reform
It is increasingly becoming a lifeline for companies to tap potential, reduce consumption, increase costs, and increase efficiency. In order to win the industrial structure adjustment, enterprises must comprehensively reduce costs from the aspects of process improvement, technology route adjustment, and energy conservation and emission reduction.
In 2010, the technical model representing the advanced productivity of nitrogen fertilizers was fully pushed into new production capacity. If Xinxin plans to build a 800,000-tonne urea production line with 2 billion yuan, it will use the new technology "pulverized coal to generate gas," and the cost of raw materials will be further reduced. The conversion rate of pulverized coal will reach 97%. Yangmei Group Heshun Chemical Co., Ltd. established an annual output of 1 million tons of urea project in Jinzhong City, including the key technologies and latest technologies for the production of synthetic ammonia and urea in the nitrogen fertilizer industry as raw materials. It is the first energy-saving technology in Shanxi Province. Emissions cutting-edge technology of fertilizer devices.
In the future, the pace of technological upgrading of the nitrogen fertilizer industry will surely become faster and faster. These technologies include speeding up the transformation of nitrogenous fertilizer raw material routes, promoting the use of advanced coal-water slurry gasification and dry coal powder pressure gasification technologies, and striving to convert 20% of the raw material structure into bituminous coal; continuing to promote integrated gas-fired energy-saving and synthetic ammonia production and saving energy Raw material gasification technology; development of recycling economy and low-carbon economy, product diversification, coal gasification as the core of the poly-generation system, based on appropriate development of coal chemical products.