The development of China's auto industry has been rickets since 50 years ago
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The rapid development of the Chinese auto market in recent years does not seem to represent the rapid progress of the Chinese auto industry. When we announced the achievements of the auto industry, the most mentioned is how to increase production and sales. In fact, as early as a year ago, the industry knew The person who judged the heat of the current Chinese auto market is already a virtual fire.
The trend of KD became increasingly fierce In 2002, there was an explosive growth in the production and sales of domestic cars, reaching 1.09 million vehicles and 1.126 million vehicles, respectively, with an increase of 55% and 56%. However, while auto manufacturers are eager to celebrate, we cannot but face up to the fact that of the more than 300,000 cars produced in the country last year, about 170,000 were produced in KD mode. This year, more and more trends show that the KD wave will continue to intensify.
The reason why the Chinese auto industry's KD approach is popular is nothing but a submissive, low-input, high-profit, quick and easy temptation. According to data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, in 2002 the sales revenue of the automotive industry was 151.5 billion yuan, an increase of 30.8% over the previous year, and a profit of 43.1 billion yuan, an increase of 60.94%. The average profit margin of the industry was 28.45%. The profit rate of bicycles for high-end car companies is as high as more than 10 million yuan. At present, the average profit rate of the whole society is between 10% and 15%, which is higher than the average social profit rate by more than 2 times. It is probably not excessive to call it "profiteering." In foreign countries, it takes at least 3 to 5 years for car dealers to invest in a new factory to make profits. It is very difficult for car dealers to reach profit margins of 3% to 4%.
In other words, in the short term, domestic auto makers have made a lot of money using the KD method, but from a long-term point of view, this kind of operation is tantamount to quenching thirst. Twenty years ago, China began to engage in the localization of automobiles. It seems plausible that major manufacturers started from KD. However, after taking a turn, we are still doing KD. This is not normal. In the international arena, KD is at best a "method of trade," but in China, it has become an efficient "production method." This may be a unique phenomenon on the road to the development of China's auto industry.
KD’s popularity has caused three “injuries†to the Chinese auto industry: First, as a large number of imported foreign parts are assembled and produced in China, the domestic parts industry will not be able to develop; secondly, the interests of consumers will be damaged and it will directly Increase the burden on domestic consumers; once again, KD will cause irreparable damage to the Chinese auto industry, parts and components are short-term behavior, it will indiscriminately consume the precious time of the development of the Chinese auto industry, and in the long run, the development of the Chinese auto industry. The ability to design can not be improved, and the level of manufacture and technology will not be exercised, and it will fall into the "less ability to rely on more, more dependent on the lack of ability". After China's accession to the WTO, the protection period for the automotive industry will end in 2006. By then, if the Chinese auto companies do not have the ability to self-develop and self-design, the consequences will be disastrous.
Unconsciously turning to the Brazilian model A recent report released by the National Bureau of Statistics states: "When all parties face the argument that China's auto industry should adopt the Korean model or the Brazilian model, China's auto industry has unconsciously turned to the Brazilian model." The Brazilian model, which has been arguing for more than a dozen years in a matter of ten years, finally has some realistic basis after the automobile industry has been open to the outside world for 20 years:
In the face of a sudden drop in production and sales rates and an increase in inventories, the auto industry, which is accustomed to rapid growth, is at a loss. Not only was the production and sales ratio of autos dropped 2.1 percentage points year-on-year in the first seven months of this year, but the inventory of finished products also increased from a decrease of 1.4% at the end of April to a rise of 27.1%, which coincided with the increase in inventory and production capacity. It is the continued injection of billions of dollars of capital, which is exactly the same as Brazil in the 1990s.
Santana 2000, Sail, Gore, Palio, all from Brazil, which we have always dismissed. Is it just coincidental coincidence that Pakistan's wind is moving eastwards?
The same developing countries with vast territory have experienced rapid economic growth. At the same time, the auto industry that started at the same time, the mainstream multinational companies have all set up camps. The vast majority of cars are branded with multinational companies, and now the Chinese auto industry, It looks very similar to Brazil in the 1990s.
James Creight, an American expert on automotive issues, recently said that the current situation in the Chinese auto market is that foreign companies are chasing bubbles, which is very risky and somewhat similar to that in Brazil. People once predicted that Brazil’s 1998 automobile sales could reach 5 million. But in fact, Brazil’s sales have never reached more than 2 million vehicles. According to Crete, China seems to be repeating the path Brazil has taken.
However, although similar, China is not yet Brazil. The typical characteristic of the Brazilian model is that foreign capital occupies a dominant position. The Brazilian automobile industry controlled by foreign capital is a giant assembly plant; another common complaint is the large amount of idle production capacity. It is reported that the Brazilian automobile industry currently has 1.1 million to 1.3 million vehicles. The ability is idle.
The above situation has not yet emerged in our country. As of the end of 2002, the proportion of foreign investment in the Chinese auto industry was 24.4%, and the proportion of foreign investment in the car manufacturing industry was 33.7%. In China's current auto industry policy, the foreign capital ratio has been limited to less than 50%. It is said that in the forthcoming new automobile industry policy, this restriction has not relaxed. Of course, this shareholding ratio of 20 years is already the bottom line in foreign joint ventures, and it is under increasing pressure.
In the opinion of the National Development and Reform Commission of the administrative examination and approval department, although China is not yet Brazil, the tendency to approach the Brazilian model is particularly dangerous. If investment risk is not considered in the market, it will inevitably cause "investment fever" and excess production capacity. Some enterprises must be eliminated in the market competition, which may lead to the increase of bank bad debts, unemployment of workers, and serious consequences of bankruptcy.
The new policy is still on the way The four categories of policies that currently play a guiding role in China's auto market have serious flaws. The new policies that are being formulated or are about to be introduced seem to be still on their way. China's auto market does not have a sound regulatory system. The automobile industry industrial policy, consumer policy, sales policy, and financial policy that are being formulated also show the tendency to “sell†and “manageâ€: Industrial policy still emphasizes the examination and approval system, and approval The entry is very detailed; the sales policy stipulates a single “brand monopoly†approach to sales rather than diversification; the consumer policy still restricts the purchase of cars, and the fear of too many private cars; financial policy essentially requires the four major state-owned banks to engage in Monopoly, foreign institutions were restricted, and other domestic institutions were also restricted.
The new automobile industry industrial policy and the auto brand monopoly policy may be forcibly introduced. However, these two policies have caused a lot of buzz, especially the brand monopoly policy. There is almost no praise for it. The auto finance policy is not only dissatisfied with foreign-funded institutions, but even dissatisfied with the major automobile groups in the country.
China's existing 123 auto OEMs, which are in a state of semi-perishable possession of a considerable proportion, due to the government's auto industry approval system, resulting in the automotive industry, new companies can not enter, and the damn can not afford to die, the result It became a pool of stagnant water. The remedy of market defects is not accomplished by government substitution, but depends on market development. In accordance with the rules of the market, there should be some in and out, there are deaths and deaths, then mergers, alliances, reorganizations, and ultimately a lively, lively, and active market.
The industry policy of the new automobile industry is still pending, there are many flaws in the automobile consumption policy, the financial policies of the automobile have caused capital abdomen, and the sales policy of the automobile “brand monopoly†has not been applauded... In recent years, the rapid development of the Chinese automobile market has become increasingly prominent. The lags and deficiencies of relevant laws and regulations, and these lags and flaws, have also increasingly constrained the advancement of the Chinese auto industry.